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Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Going to War with Iran?

Is a military confrontation with Iran inevitable?

Consider the following:

1. Iran has threatened the US with “harm and pain”.

2. Iran is sending special forces into Iraq and supplying bombs, weapons and ammunition to the insurgants in Iraq.
U.S. military and intelligence officials tell ABC News that they have caught shipments of deadly new bombs at the Iran-Iraq border.

3. The US recently moved AC-130 gunships to Iraq.
The U.S. Air Force has begun moving heavily armed AC-130 airplanes — the lethal “flying gunships” of the Vietnam War — to a base in Iraq

4. Israel has threatened Iran over its nuclear program.

5. Iran, of course, has threatened Israel with a counterstrike.
If Israel fires a missile into the Bushehr nuclear power plant, it has to say goodbye forever to its Dimona nuclear facility, where it produces and stockpiles nuclear weapons," the deputy chief of the elite Revolutionary Guards, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, said in a statement.

6. Indeed, Iran has threatened Israel’s very existence.
Iran's new president created a sense of outrage in the west yesterday by describing Israel as a "disgraceful blot" that should be "wiped off the face of the earth". Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who is more hardline than his predecessor, told students in Tehran that a new wave of Palestinian attacks would be enough to finish off Israel.

7. Iran's President has said that Israel will be "removed" from the region.

8. Bush has said the US will defend Israel if Iran attacks.

9. Iran is believed to be the primary state sponsor of terrorism.

10. Iran is a charter member of the axis of evil.

11. Iran’s President may be TRYING to provoke a war with the US and Israel because he believes that such a war will hasten the return of the Twelfth Imam.
"Our revolution's main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi," Ahmadinejad said in the speech to Friday Prayers leaders from across the country.... the Hojjatieh Society is governed by the conviction that the 12th Imam's return will be hastened by the creation of chaos on earth.

12. Iranian cleric's issued a fatwa justifying the use of nuclear weapons.

Add this all up and what do you get? A belligerent Iran, hell-bent on starting WWIII, rushing to acquire nuclear weapons and not afraid to use them. Do we wait for the inevitable, or do we launch a pre-emptive strike. Either way, things don't look good for peace prospects in the Middle East right now.

UPDATE: The following exachange was reported today:
Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz was asked whether Israel was ready to use military action if the Security Council proved unable to act against what Israel and the West believe is a covert Iranian nuclear weapons program.

"My answer to this question is that the state of Israel has the right give all the security that is needed to the people in Israel. We have to defend ourselves," Mofaz told Reuters after a meeting with his German counterpart Franz Josef Jung.
I also forgot the following quote from Iranian cleric Ayatolla Rafsanjani, implying that Iran would come out ahead in a nuclear exachange with Israel:
"If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms Israel has in possession, the strategy of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of an atomic bomb would not leave any thing in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world".

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